Population Trends

What is the Demographic Dividend?

  • Definition: A period when the working-age population (15–64 years) is higher than the dependent population (children and elderly), leading to a potential economic boost.
  • India’s Advantage: As of 2006, 62% of the population was in the working-age group. It is expected to peak at 67.3% by 2050.
  • This window of Demographic Dividend will close post-2050, after which ageing begins.

Population Growth and Historical Context

  • India’s population is the largest in the world at 34 billion.
  • The Year of the Great Divide – 1921:
    • Marked the beginning of declining death rates.
    • Shift from stagnant to rapid growth: 1901-1921 saw a rise from 30 cr to 32.2 cr.
    • Post-1921: Population grew 6-fold in a century.

Projected Demographic Changes

  • Population Increase: Additional 20–30 crore people expected by mid-21st century.
  • Ageing:
    • In 2006, 5% of the population was aged above 60.
    • Requires new tax structures, social security, and geriatric healthcare
  • Urbanization:
    • Urban population to rise from 300 million (2000) to 600 million (2050).
    • Will demand massive infrastructure investment (water, housing, traffic, etc.)
  • Population Density: From 345/sq.km (2006) to 504/sq.km (2050) – stressing land and resources.

Population Stabilization: The TFR Factor

  • Population Stabilization: When birth rate equals death rate for a prolonged period.
  • TFR (Total Fertility Rate):
    • Replacement-level fertility = 1 (ideal for stabilization).
    • India aimed for this by 2010, stabilization by 2045 (as per National Population Policy, 2000).
  • Now pushed to 2060, as per Health Ministry estimates.

State-wise TFR Disparities

  • National average may hide regional disparities:
    • Southern states reached replacement levels early.
    • Hindi heartland (Bihar, UP, MP, Rajasthan) lag significantly:
      • UP may reach TFR 2.1 only after 2100.
      • Bihar by 2030, Rajasthan by 2048.
  • Such disparities distort national demographic planning.

Regional Burdens and Migration

  • Between 1991–2050, India's population will grow by 773 million.
    • UP alone will contribute 198 million (~25%).
  • This growth in poorer states will lead to:
    • Intra-national migration towards cities and richer states.
    • Urban stress, job competition, and possible social unrest.
    • Challenge to maintain social cohesion and integration.
Population Trends

Will India Miss the Window of Opportunity?

  • If not addressed, India may lose its demographic dividend like China.
  • Stephen Howes (World Bank, 2005): States like Bihar, UP, MP, Odisha, WB may have < $1000 per capita income by 2050 — worse than 2000.
  • India had 245 million youth (15–24) in 2020 – lost potential if unutilized.

Policy and Economic Implications

  • Missed Investments: Since 2000, lack of large-scale reforms in:
    • Education
    • Healthcare
    • Employment creation
  • Policy Focus Needed:
    • Skilling youth to ensure labour productivity
    • Planning for ageing welfare
    • Investing in sustainable urbanization
    • Ensuring balanced regional development

Other Terminology related to Population:

  1. Silver Tsunami
    • Meaning: A metaphor for the rapid increase in the elderly population across the world.
    • Use: Indicates the overwhelming pressure this will put on healthcare, pensions, and social welfare systems.
    • Example: Japan and South Korea are already experiencing the silver tsunami with more than 25% of their populations over 65.
  2. Demographic Trap
    • Meaning: A situation where a country remains stuck in high fertility and high population growth, without corresponding economic growth.
    • Contrast: Opposite of demographic dividend.
    • Example: Some African and South Asian countries risk falling into this trap due to poor human development investments.
  3. Gerontocracy
    • Meaning: A political system where governance is dominated by older individuals.
    • Relevance: As populations age, political power may become concentrated in the hands of the elderly, potentially resisting youth-centric reforms.
  4. Demographic Resilience
    • Meaning: A country’s ability to adapt to demographic changes—whether ageing or shrinking population—through policy, innovation, and institutional strength.
    • Global Use: Highlighted by UNFPA and WHO in discussions on sustainable population policies.
  5. Second Demographic Dividend
    • Meaning: Economic gains that can occur after the first dividend, if the ageing population is healthy, skilled, and productively engaged.
    • Policy Focus: Encourages lifelong learning, healthy ageing, and retirement reforms to extend economic productivity.
  6. Ageing Society → Aged Society → Super-aged Society
    • UN Classification:
      • Ageing Society: >7% of population over 65
      • Aged Society: >14%
      • Super-aged Society: >21%
    • Current Status: Japan and South Korea are already super-aged; India is heading toward becoming ageing by 2036.
  7. Youth Bulge
    • Meaning: A demographic pattern where a large share of the population is comprised of youth (15–24).
    • Challenge: If unskilled and unemployed, this can lead to instability, unrest, and frustration.
    • Opportunity: Can become a demographic dividend with the right investment in education, skills, and jobs.
  8. Sandwich Generation
    • Meaning: Adults who simultaneously care for their children and elderly parents.
    • Impact: Causes emotional, economic, and mental stress—especially in urban nuclear families.
    • Relevance: Growing trend in India due to rising life expectancy and ageing parents.
  9. Demographic Time Bomb
    • Meaning: A scenario where a shrinking workforce and increasing dependency ratio lead to economic stagnation.
    • Often used for: Countries like China, Italy, and Germany with declining fertility rates and rising aged populations.
  10. Productive Ageing
    • Meaning: Concept promoting continued economic and social contribution by the elderly post-retirement.
    • Strategies:
      • Part-time roles
      • Senior entrepreneurship
      • Volunteering
      • Intergenerational mentoring
    • Policy Suggestion: Governments should redefine retirement to harness this productive capacity.
  11. Replacement Migration
    • Meaning: Migration policy where young immigrants are used to compensate for declining birth rates and ageing populations.
    • EU and Japan are exploring this model to balance shrinking workforces.
  12. Fertility Rebound
    • Meaning: A temporary or policy-induced rise in fertility rates in countries where TFR has fallen too low.
    • Seen in: Scandinavian countries with strong family support systems and gender-equal policies.
  13. Dependency Ratio Inversion
    • Meaning: When the elderly outnumber the working-age population, reversing the traditional demographic pyramid.
    • Visual Shift: The population pyramid becomes a “pillar” or even an “inverted triangle”.
    • UPSC Relevance: Profound implications for fiscal policy, pensions, and healthcare systems.
  14. Demographic Winter
    • "Demographic Winter" refers to the socioeconomic consequences of sustained low birth rates and a rapidly ageing population, eventually leading to population decline, shrinking workforce, and economic stagnation.
    • It is essentially the "cold end" of the demographic transition, when a country moves past its demographic dividend and starts suffering from demographic decay.
    • Countries facing Demographic Winter:
      • Japan (TFR ~1.3)
      • South Korea (TFR ~0.72 – lowest in the world)
      • Italy, Germany, Spain (TFR well below 2.1)
      • China (TFR ~1.1 post-One Child Policy era)