INDIA Balancing Strategic Interests in South Asia

INDIA Balancing Strategic Interests in South Asia: India’s Stand on the Taliban and Afghanistan’s Future

India’s policy toward Afghanistan under the Taliban regime reflects a delicate balance between economic engagement, security interests, and regional stability. This analysis explores the historical context, strategic calculations, and future scenarios shaping India's approach. The complexity of India's relationship with the Taliban stems from the Taliban's ties with Pakistan, the growing influence of China, and the geopolitical importance of Afghanistan as a strategic hub connecting South Asia with Central Asia.

Historical Context and India’s Strategic Legacy in Afghanistan

Historical Background

India has maintained deep cultural, economic, and political ties with Afghanistan for centuries. However, these ties have been strained by the Taliban’s previous rule (1996–2001) and its historic alignment with Pakistan. India supported the Northern Alliance against the Taliban in the 1990s and maintained close ties with the post-2001 governments of Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani.

Why Afghanistan Matters to India

1. Strategic Location – Afghanistan serves as a vital land bridge between South Asia and Central Asia.
2. Security Threat – Taliban's ties with Pakistani intelligence (ISI) and terrorist organizations (LeT, JeM) raise the risk of terrorism in Kashmir.
3. Economic Potential – Afghanistan holds significant natural resources (copper, lithium) and trade opportunities.
4. Regional Stability – Political instability in Afghanistan could destabilize South Asia.
5. Counterbalance to Pakistan and China – Engagement with the Taliban prevents Afghanistan from becoming a Pakistan-China geopolitical asset.

India’s Strategic Goals in Afghanistan

1. Regional Security and Counterterrorism
   • India seeks to prevent the rise of terror groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, which have historically used Afghan territory for training and operations.
   • Intelligence-sharing agreements with the Taliban are designed to curb cross-border terrorism in Kashmir.
   • India aims to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for terror groups aligned with Pakistan's ISI.
2. Economic and Trade Interests
   • India views Afghanistan as a key component of its broader strategy to connect with Central Asia through the Chabahar Port and land-based trade corridors.
   • Bilateral trade with Afghanistan reached $1.2 billion in 2024, with growth projected at 8–10%
   • Major Indian companies (like ONGC, Tata, and Larsen & Toubro) have shown interest in Afghan infrastructure projects.
3. Diplomatic and Political Engagement
• India’s diplomatic approach reflects a non-recognition, engagement-based policy—maintaining political distance while engaging economically and strategically.
• India’s participation in platforms like the Moscow Format and Doha Talks reinforces its political leverage over Taliban policies.
4. Humanitarian Assistance and Soft Power
   • India has maintained a non-political humanitarian presence in Afghanistan:
     • 50,000 metric tons of wheat (2024)
     • Vaccines and medical supplies (2023–2024)
     • Educational scholarships for Afghan students in Indian universities

Key Dimensions of India's Afghanistan Policy

1. Diplomatic Strategy

   Element	Details
   Recognition	No formal recognition of the Taliban government
   Engagement Platforms	Participating in multilateral platforms (Moscow Format, Doha Talks)
   Back-Channel Diplomacy	Engaging Taliban through Qatar and Russia
   Support for Inclusive Governance	Advocating for protection of minorities (Tajiks, Hazaras, Sikhs)

2.  Economic and Trade Engagement

   Area	Details	Value
   Infrastructure Projects	Zaranj-Delaram Highway, Salma Dam repair	$500 million
   Trade	Export of pharmaceuticals, import of saffron and dry fruits	$300 million annually
   Chabahar Port Investment	Upgraded port connectivity with Afghanistan	$2 billion
   Education and Skill Building	Scholarships for Afghan students in India	500+ scholarships annually

3. Security and Counterterrorism Strategy

   Threat	India’s Response	Outcome
   Taliban ties with ISI	Intelligence-sharing with Taliban leadership	Limited success
   Infiltration into Kashmir	Increased border surveillance and intelligence	Partial reduction in infiltration
   Presence of LeT and JeM	Pressure on Taliban to close training camps	Unclear effectiveness

4.  Humanitarian Assistance

   Form of Aid	Details	Beneficiaries
   Medical Aid	Vaccines and medical supplies	1 million Afghans
   Food Supplies	50,000 metric tons of wheat	5 million Afghans
   Infrastructure	Repair of hospitals and schools	Nationwide impact

5. Soft Power and Cultural Ties

   Initiative	Details
   Scholarships	500+ scholarships annually for Afghan students
   Bollywood Influence	Continued popularity of Indian films and TV shows
   Religious Diplomacy	Restoration of Hindu and Sikh temples

India’s Evolving Position Since 2024

Phase 1: Cautious Engagement (2021–2023)

• India withdrew from direct involvement post-Taliban takeover.
• Maintained back-channel communication through Qatar and Russia.
• Focused on humanitarian assistance rather than political engagement.

Phase 2: Active Re-engagement (2024–2025)

Reopening of the Indian Embassy in Kabul (April 2024)

• India reopened its embassy in April 2024, signaling a shift toward formal engagement.
• A senior Indian diplomat was posted to head the mission.
• Purpose:
  • Facilitate humanitarian aid.
  • Provide consular services to Indian citizens.
  • Establish diplomatic back-channels with Taliban leadership.
• However, India clarified that opening the embassy does not equal political recognition of the Taliban regime.

Participation in the Moscow Format Talks (October 2024)

• India participated in the Moscow Format Consultations alongside:
  • Russia
  • China
  • Iran
  • Pakistan
  • Central Asian nations
• India’s position:
  • Called for an inclusive political framework in Afghanistan.
  • Stressed the need to protect:
    • Ethnic minorities (Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras)
    • Religious minorities (Hindus, Sikhs)
  • Opposed Pakistan's dominant influence over Taliban policies.

India-Afghanistan Economic Corridor Agreement (May 2024)

• India, Iran, and Afghanistan signed a trade and transit agreement through:
  • Chabahar Port (Iran) → Afghanistan → India
  • Trade value expected to reach $2 billion annually by 2026
• India committed to investing $500 million in:
  • Road and rail connectivity from Chabahar to Kabul
  • Upgrading the Zaranj-Delaram Highway
  • Modernizing Afghanistan’s dry fruit and saffron trade infrastructure

Taliban’s Request for Technical Assistance (July 2024)

• Taliban formally invited India to:
  • Repair and upgrade the Salma Dam.
  • Modernize Afghanistan’s agriculture sector.
  • Provide medical assistance to Afghan hospitals.
• India agreed to provide technical support without diplomatic recognition.

Growing Terrorism Threats and India's Intelligence Response (August 2024)

• Indian intelligence detected:
  • Increased training of Kashmiri militants in Helmand and Khost
  • ISI-backed groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed operating training camps in Afghanistan.
• India raised concerns with the Taliban through back-channel diplomacy via:
  • Qatar
  • Russia

China and Pakistan's Growing Influence (September 2024)

• China signed a mining contract worth $3 billion with the Taliban for:
  • Copper extraction in Mes Aynak.
  • Lithium mining in Kandahar.
• Pakistan facilitated military cooperation with the Taliban by supplying:
  • Training equipment
  • Military-grade communication tools
• India viewed these developments as strategic threats and accelerated its own engagement.

Trade Agreement Between India and the Taliban (February 2025)

• India signed a non-political trade agreement with the Taliban-led Afghan government for:
  • Import of Afghan saffron, dry fruits, and carpets.
  • Export of pharmaceuticals and agricultural equipment.
  • Trade valued at approximately $300 million
• Trade was routed through:
  • Chabahar Port to avoid direct engagement with Taliban-controlled banks.

Taliban's Promise to Control Terrorism (January 2025)

• Taliban leadership assured India of:
  • No terrorist activity from Afghan soil against India.
  • Cracking down on LeT and JeM training camps.
  • Improved border security along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
• India maintained a "wait-and-see" policy on the Taliban’s commitments.

Growing Chinese and Pakistani Influence (March 2025)

• China and Pakistan increased their investments in Afghanistan:
  • China invested in mining projects (copper and lithium).
  • Pakistan facilitated new transport corridors through Afghanistan.
• India’s strategic response:
  • Increased infrastructure aid to Afghanistan to counterbalance growing Chinese influence.
  • Strengthened diplomatic engagement with Central Asian partners.

Strategic Use of Soft Power

• India expanded its soft power influence by:
  • Sponsoring scholarships for Afghan students at Indian universities.
  • Funding reconstruction of historical sites like:
    • Buddhist monasteries in Bamiyan.
    • Mosques damaged during the Taliban's first rule (1996–2001).
  • Broadcasting Bollywood films and TV shows in Afghanistan.

Strategic Outcomes and Future Scenarios

Geopolitical Analysis

1. India vs. Pakistan
   • Pakistan has historically used the Taliban as a proxy to secure strategic depth against India.
   • India’s re-engagement with the Taliban aims to weaken Pakistan’s influence over Kabul.
   • Taliban’s growing economic dependence on China complicates India’s strategy.
2. India vs. China
   • China has aggressively pursued mining contracts and infrastructure projects in Afghanistan.
   • Chinese companies have secured long-term contracts for:
     • Copper extraction in Mes Aynak
     • Lithium mining in Kandahar
   • India is countering this by increasing trade and infrastructure investment through Chabahar Port.
3. India’s Position in Multilateral Platforms

   Platform	India’s Role	Goal
   Moscow Format	Participating with Russia, China, and Iran	Influence Taliban’s political framework
   Doha Talks	Engaging Taliban leadership through Qatar	Establish direct diplomatic channels
   UN Human Rights Council	Advocating for minority and women’s rights in Afghanistan	Enhance soft power and diplomatic leverage

Challenges and Risks

Future Scenarios

Strategic Recommendations

1. Diversify Economic Engagement – Expand trade and transit routes beyond Chabahar Port.
2. Enhance Security Cooperation – Establish direct intelligence-sharing channels with Taliban.
3. Expand Diplomatic Engagement – Leverage Moscow and Doha platforms for political influence.
4. Counter China’s Economic Influence – Offer competitive infrastructure and resource contracts.
5. Engage Central Asia – Strengthen connectivity with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

A Delicate Balance

India’s Afghanistan policy reflects a careful blend of economic pragmatism, security imperatives, and diplomatic flexibility. India’s ability to navigate the evolving Afghan landscape while balancing threats from Pakistan and China will define its success in securing long-term strategic influence in South Asia.